Wisconsin's 2 cents

Here is the job approval rating that Wisconsinites have for our President.

http://huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/23/jobapproval-presobama_n_725956.html?xml=http://pollster.com/flashcharts/content/xml/WIObamaJobPres.xml&choices=Disapprove,Approve&phone=&ivr=&internet=&mail=&smoothing=&from_date=&to_date=&min_pct=&max_pct=&grid=&points=&trends=&lines=

How does this bode for republicans here, political science would tell us not well.The switch in favor happened between February and March of this year.The trend is continuing to decline with respect to Obama's favor, so nothing different is expected to change among the overall feeling for Democrats by mid-term time. I think the five point spread; Approve: 44.9% Disprove: 50.9 %, where it is now, is significant for Wisconsin Republicans on the ballot.

Does this matter?

Well now, this might mean something. Wright Track/Wrong Track
Wrong track is on top
Wright track is on bottom

In June of '09 the ballots meet at 45.8 believing the Country was on the Wright track, as well as the same percentage thinking the Country was on the Wrong track. Now, 63.5 disagree with the Country's direction while a huge 30.8 disagree. That accounts for a -32.7 spread. It's easy to interpret what this means for the mid-term elections. However, in attempting to interpret the trend, people seem to have been increasingly optimistic after the Presidential Election and throughout the stimulus taking place, until the economy/unemployment rate became stagnant, when the majority became increasing dissatisfied. Very interestingly, from late March to mid May, there was an actual a decrease in dissatisfaction, by three points! This is a time span immediately fallowing the Health-Care Reform Bill being signed into law. I could guess that post-midterm trends would follow this graph until the economic growth pulls out of recession. But, I like this graph.

!@$%?

I was curious to see what kind of influence specific party's would have when going to the poles this November. These are the margins that I found.

http://huffingtonpost.com/2009/04/30/party-id_n_725948.html?xml=http://pollster.com/flashcharts/content/xml/USPartyID.xml&choices=independent,Democrat,Republican&phone=&ivr=&internet=&mail=&smoothing=&from_date=&to_date=&min_pct=&max_pct=&grid=&points=&trends=&lines=

This not surprisingly, surprised me, and I did not appreciate how crucial the Independent Vote was, or at least how important it appears to be by this chart from pollster.com. It will also be interesting to witness the next shift in majority.

Close your eyes people.

http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/dmaocdd1se2puc8cb-ekta.gif

Well, nobody said that it was going to be easy, and apparently, nobody thinks that it is. The reason I think this is important is because it affect the idea of the 'American Dream'. From this I gather that even employed people are less happy with there job; this whether due to lower wage, longer hours, less job security,  need of a better job to supplement lost household income, a combination of these things, or some left unsaid, showing that the recession has had a profound impact on all Americans way of life. Maybe this is digging too deep, but if recovery means going back to where we were as a nation before the recession, things may not be back to normal even longer after nationwide employment grows.

2010 Wisconsin Senate Race

I found this @ http://www.rasmussenreports.com/
This may mean a few things. One, the Russ has a pretty strong fallowing, probably because of his time in office and name recognition. Two, Ron has been steadily growing in popularity, possibly because of the independent voters finally switching to him, and the undecided members also may be choosing Ron. This may show that Russ is not attracting new voters while Ron is.

	Ron Johnson (R)	Russ Feingold (D)	Some Other Candidate	Not Sure
September 15, 2010	51%	44%	1%	4%
August 24, 2010	47%	46%	1%	5%
August 10, 2010	47%	46%	2%	5%
July 27, 2010	48%	46%	2%	5%
July 13, 2010	47%	46%	2%	6%
June 21, 2010	45%	46%	3%	6%
May 25, 2010	44%	46%	3%	6%

*NOTE: Results from surveys conducted prior to September 15 do not include leaners.

Candidate for the WI Senate Race	Very Favorable	Somewhat Favorable	Somewhat Unfavorable	Very Unfavorable	Not sure
Feingold	32%	19%	18%	28%	3%
Johnson	29%	32%	14%	19%	5%

This is also interesting, because people for Feingold find him 52% Favorable, and 46% Unfavorable.
The people for Johnson find him 61% Favorable and only 33% Unfavorable.
This is something that I think shows that Johnson has a stronger base with less chance of swing voters.

Uh Oh for Obama

This could be very serious for Obama, and the Democrats in general.

http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/er24smwlmk2sckuqwsjo4g.gif

 http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/ovc2gafzhu2l2600zv_-qw.gif



This would mean that Obama would have to fight more friction in getting his legislation passed, and therefore would lead to the possibility increasing of him becoming a one term president. This is because these groups are the Presidents bread and butter. Leading those groups to assumably vote Democrat.

Economy/Food Supply

These are very nice charts of Brazil's change in agriculture in response to the reemerging concerns of a world food crisis due to population, renewable water, and land resources, also known as "agro-pessimism". These show hope.

http://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/images/images-magazine/2010/35/bb/201035bbc172.gif




Found at Economist.com & check out the first link, it's another chart that's very cool, same site as the second, but would not paste!